IPL

I have to write about IPL - cannot help it.
All the drama before a ball was bowled - that sapped some of my interest, instead of whetting it. To be honest, I did not think Modi san would carry it off - he did! Wow! As a pure management exercise, his was sublime. If CEOs can do what he did, the recession should be short work.
Heh!

Now that it is on, I watch it when I can. The few matches that have been close - especially the three in the last 5 days, were riveting stuff. Now that I have experienced it, I also know that last year was different. Last year had energy, it had raw passion. Yes, it had more than its share of silliness, yet the people in the stands made a palpable difference. The screen used to throb. You know exactly what I'm talking about.

This year, we have had even more silliness, even more blatant commercial crassness, the commentary has been pathetic and the crowds have been dull. I don't mind the silliness or the crassness or the commentary because I can do mute, or simply flick to Natgeo and come back exactly to rejoin the play. But the energy? It is missing. The crowds are thin, there is bonhomie maybe, but no partisanship, no heart-thumping electricity. Its boring.

I might as well be watching Essex bat against Notts - don't really give a rat's ass. Clearly, IPL can only work in India. That is a learning that Lalit Modi must have got by now. Knowing him, we can be sure that the next year it will be in India, come het or wet, rain or snow; and we also know that the brazen strategy break will be gone as well. Thank the Lord for small mercies!!

Resuming Talks

There seems to be a default assumption that talks should resume between India and Pakistan. What we hardly ever debate is this basic assumption. Why should talks resume? What is so pressing about talks that either Pakistan or India should take heed? Let us examine first the possible reasons why Pakistan might want to talk with us.

1. Pakistan wants to discuss Kashmir. Specifically, it wants to discuss the ways in which it will be possible for India to give up territorial rights over the part of Jammu and Kashmir that we control. Assume for a moment that Pakistan really is interested in that part which is predominantly Muslim - so the Valley, really. What does India think of this? No way! So out it goes of the window. Unless Pakistan wants to pretend to demand, and India, pretend to listen.
   
2. If giving up territorial rights to the Kashmir Valley is a no-go, then Pakistan wants to discuss ways in which India will allow Kashmir to be autonomous (much like Chechnya, Ingushetia, etc. We all know what happened there!). Again, what does India think? Mind your own business, Pakistan, it says. So, this one is out as well. Or the same humbug as above - pretend some more.


3. Pakistan wants India to not dam Jhelum and Chenab and release more water than now. The 1960 Indus water treaty is seen as unfair in both countries for exactly the opposite reasons. Since 1960, India, because of it having the upper-riparian and upstream systems, has created dams along the main and the tributaries feeding into the rivers. It is now in complete control of the flows. This is alarming from a Pakistan point of view, and exactly how we want them to be, from an Indian point of view. Over the centuries, land and water have been the primary cause of wars. This has the potential of being the number one issue between us in the next 20 years. India will extract the maximum bargain from the waters and will no doubt, try to do the tightrope walk to ensure that it does not tip Pakistan over the edge and start a nuclear exchange. Strategically, Pakistan is poorly placed in this matter. The situation is getting worse still because India has reached out to Afghanistan and offered to dam the Kabul river. This will mean further loss of water, this time from the western border. It is desperate times ahead for Pakistan and it has very few levers left. If Pakistan's planners are wise, they would focus all their attention on this issue. Kashmir, while a popular refrain, is not as important. Yes, if the Kashmir valley goes over to Pakistan then it will have more say in the river systems, specially Indus. But India will never allow the Simla LoC to change. Hence it is not a gettable target for Pakistan. Which is why it makes so much sense for the planners and strategists in Pakistan to come up with an imaginative river sharing solution. War-mongering, aggression, complaining, none are going to work in the next, maybe 30 years to come. That is so because India will be the frontier nation along with China for most trade and wealth creation.


4. Pakistan wants India to stop interfering in Baluchistan and Sindh. While this was not a concern for Pakistan for all these years, it will now become one. Simply put, India did not really have a foothold in either of those provinces. It had a espionage network that it dismantled in the 90's (thank you, Mr. IK Gujral!), and now, nothing. However, Afghanistan is turning out to be an interesting case. With US blessings, India is slowly getting to be a 'legit' player in the geo-politics of Afghanistan. India is sure to leverage this entry it has got by means of, 'rebuilding Afghanistan' (and a mere $1billion) and surround Pakistan. It won't be too long when India will work with Iran and further get a grip around Pakistan. Shia Iran is no supporter of a majorly Sunni Pakistan. Here too, Pakistan is poorly placed to get any leverage. Plus, both the military and the ISI have played their cards wrong - they have not been long-sighted and have learnt nothing from the past, especially the colonial past. Too much reliance has been placed on the fortuitous Russian faux-pas, and the consequent Taliban movement. It stands increasingly isolated now. China can't help even if it wants to; and China is already re-evaluating its options. It will not jeopardise the possible economic benefits of being friendly to India (albeit reluctantly) for siding with an ally like Pakistan. It will be too costly. China will, no doubt, continue to surround India and 'show her its place' at every given opportunity, however, it will also build economic bridges, or more specifically, mutual dependence on natural resources like oil and minerals.

What does India want to talk about?

1. India wants Pakistan to stop supporting the Islamic terrorists and wants the state instruments like the military and the ISI to stop planning and conducting terror attacks across India. This is not going to happen as long as Pakistan exists as we know it today. In my earlier blog I have written why. In a single line: a united and secular India negates the need for Pakistan to exists as a separate nation.


2. India wants Pakistan to give each other MFN status and build trading links. This may start happening now. The military establishment might object, as it always has. People getting closer will not fit into the stratagem of fostering hatred. It won't happen if the civilian government (when it is in a position to rule) makes Kashmir a precondition. There is nothing to discuss about Kashmir.


3. India wants Pakistan to not veto its membership to OIC and not ask allies to veto us either. In short, India thinks that being the country with the second largest Muslim population makes her an automatic candidate for OIC. Considering countries like Togo make the list, its scandalous that India is not in the club. Of course, Pakistan will veto every time. If it does not, it undermines the notion of its existence.


4. India wants Pakistan to shut its ISI operations in Nepal and Bangladesh. Not one of the three countries will oblige India. India has not been a responsible big brother and this is the price we have paid and will continue to pay.

So what do we have? A very, very limited list of essential items to discuss. How long should it have taken? 5 years? Maybe 10? But 50! Is it possible that the talks are a big hoax? Examine - apart for the UN tribunals that handed bits and pieces to the two countries, nothing substantial has ever been agreed and followed. The LoC has stayed, more or less, with seasonal incursions; but the water treaty has never worked, there is no provision for visitor visa for citizens of either country; there is no overarching trade agreement, there is no cultural exchange blue-print; students cannot study in each other's educational institutions. It is clear that ours is an unhealthy relationship. No positives can emerge from this morass.

For that to happen, we need to restart. With no assumptions. No baggage of the past. Only looking ahead. If this is simplistic, then it is. Why can we not try? After all, we are neither brothers nor neighbours. We are just enemies now. We have nothing more to lose.

Beating the Heat

It's been some time since I blogged. Not that one has something momentous to say now. The summer has been tough - with the whole of May to go yet. Talking of which, I must tell you about the chaas.

The canteen has been supplying a chaas at lunch-time that has chopped coriander and just a little bit of pudina and a touch of rock-salt. The buttermilk is nice and thin and sour. Just the right mix of tastes that makes the summer mellow. That and the zero need to step out in the open from the delicious, cool interiors makes it easy to withstand. Bit la-di-da, nonetheless, lucky! Wouldn't have relished travelling under such circumstances.

The other thing that I look forward to is the pani-puri on my way back. This guy has a stall at Parey's, Sher-e-Punjab; and he has ice-cold pani that has mint and green mangoes and is fairly sour. Mumbai pani is usually bland. This guy also makes a nice aalu mix (no ragda for me, thank you!).

The first thing to do on reaching home is to make a tall glass of fresh-lime soda. Ah! Bliss!

I'm waiting for the rains. Taking a page off Alexander Frater, a-la the Indians Spices Board members, I promise to soak myself in the first shower, no matter what the situation.